Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 14?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 68¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 14

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$286.86

Combined PnL

-$3.32

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 67.5¢

-10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$84.42

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$5.95

No10 traders

Total Value$115.02

Total Shares168

Combined PnL-$9.28

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$88.24	$87.42	-$0.81	72% 823-323 (1146)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.1¢	$73.37	$65.27	-$8.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.5¢	$14.87	$22.16	+$7.29
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$82.29	$83.46	+$1.17	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$33.69	$28.13	-$5.56	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$19.05	$16.98	-$2.07	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 73¢	$15.66	$15.34	-$0.32	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 77.3¢	$17.39	$14.96	-$2.42	50% 697-689 (1386)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$42.17	$14.68	+$4.69	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$10.32	$8.59	-$1.74	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$7.59	$7.41	-$0.18	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$4.28	$3.72	-$0.55	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 78¢	$4	$3.33	-$0.67	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 81¢	$2.32	$1.87	-$0.46	58% 699-503 (1202)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.57	$0.97	+$4.79	27% 667-1774 (2441)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$88.24

Value

$87.42

PnL

-$0.81

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

Both legs:

Invested

$82.29

Value

$83.46

PnL

+$1.17

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$33.69

Value

$28.13

PnL

-$5.56

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$19.05

Value

$16.98

PnL

-$2.07

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

$15.34

PnL

-$0.32

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.39

Value

$14.96

PnL

-$2.42

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.17

Value

$14.68

PnL

+$4.69

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$10.32

Value

$8.59

PnL

-$1.74

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$7.59

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$0.55

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.67

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.32

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.46

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.57

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$4.79

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.