Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 13 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on November 14?

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 48¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 14

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$207.63

Combined PnL

-$88.86

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 47.8¢

-22% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$146.42

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$84.76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$61.21

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$4.11

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 89.5¢	$107.42	$43.92	-$63.5	40% 620-939 (1559)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$50.03	$37.21	-$12.83	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 42.6¢	$15.11	$22.48	+$7.37	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$26.28	$22.14	-$4.14	72% 823-323 (1146)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$68.17	$19.41	-$17.25	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$8.05	$11.43	+$3.38	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$10.62	$9.29	-$1.33	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 34.6¢	$8.1	$8.57	+$0.46	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 33.9¢	$7.79	$8.4	+$0.61	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$6.04	$6.55	+$0.5	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$6.84	$4.88	-$1.96	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 30.2¢	$3.37	$4.09	+$0.72	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$6.11	$3.69	-$2.42	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$2.86	$3.32	+$0.46	58% 699-503 (1202)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.18	$1.53	+$1.35	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$17.38	$0.73	-$0.28	13% 76-495 (571)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$107.42

Value

$43.92

PnL

-$63.5

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.03

Value

$37.21

PnL

-$12.83

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.11

Value

$22.48

PnL

+$7.37

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$26.28

Value

$22.14

PnL

-$4.14

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$68.17

Value

$19.41

PnL

-$17.25

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$11.43

PnL

+$3.38

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$10.62

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$1.33

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$0.46

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$7.79

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.61

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$0.5

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$1.96

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$3.37

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$0.72

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$6.11

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$2.42

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.32

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$1.35

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$17.38

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.28

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 16 top traders (81%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.0%

47.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.