Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$102.57
$0
99.3¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $24.3 | $24.36 | +$0.06 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $23.23 | $23.12 | -$0.11 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $22.58 | $22.48 | -$0.1 | 28% 530-1372 (1902) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $22.3 | $22.39 | +$0.09 | 99% 370-2 (372) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5.06 | $5.04 | -$0.02 | 50% 445-444 (889) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5.04 | $5.02 | -$0.02 | 52% 431-401 (832) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.13 | $0.16 | +$0.1 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
Invested
$24.3
Value
$24.36
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$23.23
Value
$23.12
PnL
-$0.11
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$22.58
Value
$22.48
PnL
-$0.1
Record
28%
530-1372 (1902)
Invested
$22.3
Value
$22.39
PnL
+$0.09
Record
99%
370-2 (372)
Invested
$5.06
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.02
Record
50%
445-444 (889)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
431-401 (832)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.1
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.