Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$101.47
$4.06
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $43.54 | $46.71 | +$3.17 | 68% 2086-974 (3060) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $19.01 | $18.68 | -$0.32 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $13.38 | $13.08 | -$0.31 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $8 | $9.6 | +$1.6 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $7.83 | $7.65 | -$0.18 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $5.65 | $5.75 | +$0.1 | 78% 593-165 (758) |
Invested
$43.54
Value
$46.71
PnL
+$3.17
Record
68%
2086-974 (3060)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.01
Value
$18.68
PnL
-$0.32
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$13.38
Value
$13.08
PnL
-$0.31
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$8
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$1.6
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$7.65
PnL
-$0.18
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.1
Record
78%
593-165 (758)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.