Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 52¢ · $374 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$374.03
$53.42
43.2¢ → 51.5¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $144.73 | $181.49 | +$36.76 | 61% 1147-748 (1895) |
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 45.4¢ | $137.91 | $154.88 | +$16.97 | 68% 2092-980 (3072) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.6¢ | $12.41 | $11.76 | -$0.64 | 53% 5779-5161 (10940) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $10.15 | $10.58 | +$0.43 | 38% 3334-5399 (8733) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $10.2 | +$0 | 34% 338-670 (1008) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $5.21 | $5.11 | -$0.1 | 78% 601-171 (772) |
Invested
$144.73
Value
$181.49
PnL
+$36.76
Record
61%
1147-748 (1895)
Invested
$137.91
Value
$154.88
PnL
+$16.97
Record
68%
2092-980 (3072)
Invested
$12.41
Value
$11.76
PnL
-$0.64
Record
53%
5779-5161 (10940)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$10.15
Value
$10.58
PnL
+$0.43
Record
38%
3334-5399 (8733)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
338-670 (1008)
Invested
$5.21
Value
$5.11
PnL
-$0.1
Record
78%
601-171 (772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.