Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on November 12?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 61¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 12

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$91.82

Combined PnL

-$3.34

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$74.54

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$3.6

Yes3 traders

Total Value$17.29

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$0.26

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$29.5	$27.38	-$2.12	53% 5788-5165 (10953)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$15.54	$14.37	-$1.16	38% 3346-5401 (8747)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.3¢	$13.98	$14.33	+$0.35	68% 2098-982 (3080)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 63¢	$14.32	$13.97	-$0.34	28% 530-1372 (1902)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$6.38	$6.38	+$0	46% 461-548 (1009)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68¢	$6	$6.17	+$0.18	78% 607-176 (783)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.21	$3.14	-$0.08	43% 757-1024 (1781)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.19	$3.12	-$0.08	51% 412-396 (808)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.5	+$0.1	34% 345-674 (1019)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.64	$1.46	-$0.19	55% 658-540 (1198)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.5

Value

$27.38

PnL

-$2.12

Record

53%

5788-5165 (10953)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$15.54

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$1.16

Record

38%

3346-5401 (8747)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.98

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$0.35

Record

68%

2098-982 (3080)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$14.32

Value

$13.97

PnL

-$0.34

Record

28%

530-1372 (1902)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.38

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

461-548 (1009)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$0.18

Record

78%

607-176 (783)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.08

Record

43%

757-1024 (1781)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

412-396 (808)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

34%

345-674 (1019)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.19

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.