Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 12?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $254 held · ends Nov 12

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$254.22

Combined PnL

$0.54

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 95.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$254.22

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$0.54

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.2¢	$128.53	$128.79	+$0.26	34% 356-686 (1042)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$47.01	$47.47	+$0.53	55% 680-552 (1232)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$42.46	$42.51	+$0.05	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$21.09	$20.79	-$0.3	38% 3366-5404 (8770)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$4.96	$4.96	+$0	43% 773-1033 (1806)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$4.86	$4.86	+$0	48% 462-508 (970)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$4.84	$4.84	+$0	46% 477-554 (1031)

241532532432

Invested

$128.53

Value

$128.79

PnL

+$0.26

Record

34%

356-686 (1042)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.01

Value

$47.47

PnL

+$0.53

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$42.46

Value

$42.51

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$20.79

PnL

-$0.3

Record

38%

3366-5404 (8770)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

773-1033 (1806)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

462-508 (970)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

477-554 (1031)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.