Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on November 12?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 12

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$148.54

Combined PnL

-$0.19

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 98.6¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$148.54

Total Shares151

Combined PnL-$0.19

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$43.88	$43.6	-$0.28	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$24.35	$24.7	+$0.35	55% 680-552 (1232)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$23.29	$23.04	-$0.25	38% 3366-5404 (8770)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$19.48	$19.72	+$0.24	34% 356-686 (1042)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.72	-$0.14	28% 530-1372 (1902)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$10.3	$10.23	-$0.07	50% 445-444 (889)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.06	$5.03	-$0.03	45% 457-548 (1005)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	99% 370-2 (372)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$43.88

Value

$43.6

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.35

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$0.35

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$23.29

Value

$23.04

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

3366-5404 (8770)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.48

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$0.24

Record

34%

356-686 (1042)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$0.14

Record

28%

530-1372 (1902)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.23

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

445-444 (889)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

457-548 (1005)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

370-2 (372)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.