Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$74.57
-$0.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $23.34 | $23.17 | -$0.17 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $22.67 | $22.53 | -$0.14 | 28% 530-1372 (1902) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.22 | $15.13 | -$0.09 | 43% 773-1033 (1806) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.17 | $5.15 | -$0.03 | 52% 431-401 (832) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.12 | $5.1 | -$0.03 | 45% 457-548 (1005) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | -$0 | 99% 370-2 (372) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$23.34
Value
$23.17
PnL
-$0.17
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$22.67
Value
$22.53
PnL
-$0.14
Record
28%
530-1372 (1902)
Invested
$15.22
Value
$15.13
PnL
-$0.09
Record
43%
773-1033 (1806)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
431-401 (832)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0.03
Record
45%
457-548 (1005)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
370-2 (372)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.