Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 80¢ · $118 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$118.36
$24.07
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $39.59 | $71.34 | +$31.75 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $19.67 | $17.21 | -$2.46 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $17.26 | $15.95 | -$1.31 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $35.41 | $8.23 | -$3.88 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $5.67 | $5.62 | -$0.04 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
Invested
$39.59
Value
$71.34
PnL
+$31.75
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$19.67
Value
$17.21
PnL
-$2.46
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.26
Value
$15.95
PnL
-$1.31
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$35.41
Value
$8.23
PnL
-$3.88
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$5.62
PnL
-$0.04
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.