Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 11?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 49¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$119.14
$15.32
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $80.91 | $94.66 | +$13.75 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $11.06 | $12.06 | +$1 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $3.23 | $4.5 | +$1.27 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $4.59 | $4.03 | -$0.55 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $4.04 | $3.89 | -$0.14 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
Invested
$80.91
Value
$94.66
PnL
+$13.75
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.06
Value
$12.06
PnL
+$1
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$3.23
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$1.27
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$0.55
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$3.89
PnL
-$0.14
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.