Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $361 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$360.52
$40.72
71.6¢ → 80.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 71.3¢ | $269.46 | $304.26 | +$34.8 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $17 | $20.16 | +$3.16 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $16.81 | $17.81 | +$1 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $11.55 | $12.31 | +$0.76 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $4.97 | $5.98 | +$1.01 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
Invested
$269.46
Value
$304.26
PnL
+$34.8
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$17
Value
$20.16
PnL
+$3.16
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.81
Value
$17.81
PnL
+$1
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$12.31
PnL
+$0.76
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$5.98
PnL
+$1.01
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.