Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 10?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 96¢ · $340 held · ends Nov 10

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$339.82

Combined PnL

$5.81

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 96.1¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$339.06

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$5.49

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.76

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.32

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$89.35	$90.66	+$1.31	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98¢	$68.77	$66.72	-$2.05	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$51.73	$47.77	+$0.88	51% 197-186 (383)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$25.86	$30.35	+$4.49	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$24.57	$24.84	+$0.27	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$20.22	$20.54	+$0.32	35% 138-259 (397)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$19.82	$19.8	-$0.02	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$11.06	$11.17	+$0.1	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$10.15	$10.22	+$0.07	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$9.87	$9.9	+$0.03	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$7	$7.1	+$0.1	28% 153-400 (553)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.44	$0.76	+$0.32	67% 3785-1901 (5686)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$89.35

Value

$90.66

PnL

+$1.31

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$68.77

Value

$66.72

PnL

-$2.05

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$51.73

Value

$47.77

PnL

+$0.88

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$25.86

Value

$30.35

PnL

+$4.49

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$24.57

Value

$24.84

PnL

+$0.27

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$20.22

Value

$20.54

PnL

+$0.32

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.06

Value

$11.17

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$0.07

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.03

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$0.32

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.