Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 10?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 62¢ · $559 held · ends Nov 10

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$558.66

Combined PnL

-$30.48

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 62¢

-16% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$195.62

Total Shares310

Combined PnL-$30.48

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$269.22	$263.64	-$5.58	21% 132-485 (617)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.5¢	$115.02	$147.06	+$32.04
└ No leg	Noavg 88.6¢	$154.2	$116.58	-$37.62
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 66.6¢	$95.92	$99.37	+$3.44	89% 409-53 (462)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.6¢	$78.67	$65.56	-$13.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.7¢	$17.25	$33.81	+$16.55
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$66.19	$62.83	-$3.37	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$52.52	$40.36	-$12.16	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$21.98	$19.71	-$2.26	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$19.08	$14.91	-$4.17	36% 462-806 (1268)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.2	$13.4	-$4.8	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$17.06	$12.5	+$4.7	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.85	$10.62	-$4.23	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$14.12	$10.62	-$3.5	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$5.17	$5.62	+$0.45	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$6.19	$5.04	-$1.15	28% 153-400 (553)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$269.22

Value

$263.64

PnL

-$5.58

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

Yes$115.0223.5¢+$32.04

No$154.288.6¢-$37.62

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$95.92

Value

$99.37

PnL

+$3.44

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

Both legs:

No$78.6766.6¢-$13.11

Yes$17.2522.7¢+$16.55

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$66.19

Value

$62.83

PnL

-$3.37

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$52.52

Value

$40.36

PnL

-$12.16

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$21.98

Value

$19.71

PnL

-$2.26

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$19.08

Value

$14.91

PnL

-$4.17

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$13.4

PnL

-$4.8

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.06

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$4.7

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$14.85

Value

$10.62

PnL

-$4.23

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$14.12

Value

$10.62

PnL

-$3.5

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0.45

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$1.15

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.