Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $483 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$482.95
-$7.44
93.9¢ → 94.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $354.99 | $348.24 | -$6.75 | 53% 29-26 (55) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $49.36 | $49.39 | +$0.03 | 77% 44-13 (57) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $46.28 | $45.3 | -$0.98 | 81% 65-15 (80) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $27.37 | $26.92 | -$0.46 | 28% 56-141 (197) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $12.38 | $13.11 | +$0.72 | 53% 87-77 (164) |
Invested
$354.99
Value
$348.24
PnL
-$6.75
Record
53%
29-26 (55)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$49.36
Value
$49.39
PnL
+$0.03
Record
77%
44-13 (57)
Invested
$46.28
Value
$45.3
PnL
-$0.98
Record
81%
65-15 (80)
Invested
$27.37
Value
$26.92
PnL
-$0.46
Record
28%
56-141 (197)
Invested
$12.38
Value
$13.11
PnL
+$0.72
Record
53%
87-77 (164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.