Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on November 10?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$149.08
-$2.4
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $57.63 | $56.68 | -$0.95 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $51.04 | $50.2 | -$0.84 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.65 | -$0.31 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.09 | $6.98 | -$0.12 | 34% 150-294 (444) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.09 | $5.99 | -$0.1 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $4.92 | $4.91 | -$0 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $4.76 | $4.68 | -$0.08 | 30% 174-414 (588) |
Invested
$57.63
Value
$56.68
PnL
-$0.95
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$51.04
Value
$50.2
PnL
-$0.84
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.65
PnL
-$0.31
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$7.09
Value
$6.98
PnL
-$0.12
Record
34%
150-294 (444)
Invested
$6.09
Value
$5.99
PnL
-$0.1
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.91
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.68
PnL
-$0.08
Record
30%
174-414 (588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
qwen300.fund
No — $56.68
Lucerys
No — $50.2
cigarettes
No — $19.65
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $6.98
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $5.99
ghorrock
No — $4.91
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $4.68