Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 1?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$31.77

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL+$554.92

No3 traders

Total Value$97.54

Total Shares887

Combined PnL-$523.16

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 34.5¢	$442.35	$1.1K	+$554.92	50% 670-669 (1339)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 62.1¢	$435.25	$65.72	-$369.54	18% 364-1606 (1970)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$75.35	$16.37	-$58.98	54% 462-387 (849)
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 67.8¢	$110.09	$15.45	-$94.64	50% 1900-1871 (3771)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$442.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$554.92

Record

50%

670-669 (1339)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$435.25

Value

$65.72

PnL

-$369.54

Record

18%

364-1606 (1970)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$75.35

Value

$16.37

PnL

-$58.98

Record

54%

462-387 (849)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$110.09

Value

$15.45

PnL

-$94.64

Record

50%

1900-1871 (3771)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.