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IstarothCTR<$100Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$7.95
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$7.95
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 17%No — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $7.95 | — | -$7.95 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20693-13116 (33809) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 68.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 587-559 (1146) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6330-5547 (11877) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 70.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 1599-1056 (2655) |
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$7.95
Value
—
PnL
-$7.95
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20693-13116 (33809)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
587-559 (1146)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6330-5547 (11877)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
24
241532532432<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
1599-1056 (2655)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x6f889623...d52736
Slug
highest-temperature-in-shenzhen-on-october-28-2026-30c