Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on November 6?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $606 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$605.91
-$13.49
57.4¢ → 99.9¢
+74% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $312.73 | $312.73 | +$0.01 | 97% 287-8 (295) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293 | Noavg 12.1¢ | $57.9 | $292.97 | +$0.8 | 45% 1839-2238 (4077) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $7.3 | $0.2 | -$14.63 | 38% 864-1436 (2300) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $52.65 | $0.01 | +$0.34 | 53% 12575-10982 (23557) |
Invested
$312.73
Value
$312.73
PnL
+$0.01
Record
97%
287-8 (295)
Invested
$57.9
Value
$292.97
PnL
+$0.8
Record
45%
1839-2238 (4077)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$14.63
Record
38%
864-1436 (2300)
Invested
$52.65
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
12575-10982 (23557)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.