Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on November 6?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $707 held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$707.31

Combined PnL

$660.7

Smart Money Entry

22.9¢ → 0.5¢

-98% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$627.05

Total Shares633

Combined PnL+$596.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$80.24

Total Shares1,003

Combined PnL+$64.02

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 12.9¢	$90.74	$495.25	+$586.86	45% 1825-2206 (4031)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 22.6¢	$7.49	$75.49	+$68	38% 859-1414 (2273)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$58.73	$63.81	+$5.08	52% 30994-29002 (59996)
Istaroth	Noavg 75¢	$331.25	$55.85	+$4.64	13% 534-3548 (4082)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$12.03	$12.14	+$0.12	97% 264-7 (271)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.4¢	$8.59	$3.63	-$4.96	62% 658-398 (1056)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.14	$1.12	+$0.98	28% 2863-7356 (10219)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$90.74

Value

$495.25

PnL

+$586.86

Record

45%

1825-2206 (4031)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$7.49

Value

$75.49

PnL

+$68

Record

38%

859-1414 (2273)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$58.73

Value

$63.81

PnL

+$5.08

Record

52%

30994-29002 (59996)

Istaroth

Invested

$331.25

Value

$55.85

PnL

+$4.64

Record

13%

534-3548 (4082)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.03

Value

$12.14

PnL

+$0.12

Record

97%

264-7 (271)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.59

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$4.96

Record

62%

658-398 (1056)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.98

Record

28%

2863-7356 (10219)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.