Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on November 6?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 5.0¢ · $33 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$33.5
-$20.06
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | No | $22.4 | $22.4 | +$0.01 | 45% 1809-2204 (4013) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $7.3 | $10.1 | -$18.26 | 38% 858-1404 (2262) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.01 | $1 | -$1.81 | 54% 12536-10870 (23406) |
Invested
$22.4
Value
$22.4
PnL
+$0.01
Record
45%
1809-2204 (4013)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$10.1
PnL
-$18.26
Record
38%
858-1404 (2262)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$1
PnL
-$1.81
Record
54%
12536-10870 (23406)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.