Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on November 2?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 96¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 2

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$157.23

Combined PnL

-$1.79

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 95.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$155.21

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$1.29

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.76

Total Shares22

Combined PnL-$0.5

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$84.72	$81.9	-$2.82	72% 6092-2367 (8459)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 94¢	$31.74	$30.56	-$1.18	46% 41-49 (90)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79¢	$26.68	$14.43	+$3.51	56% 14530-11397 (25927)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 95¢	$10.36	$10.2	-$0.15	46% 89-104 (193)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 95¢	$8.62	$8.48	-$0.14	52% 570-533 (1103)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95¢	$8.36	$7.84	-$0.51	58% 3434-2465 (5899)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92¢	$1.79	$1.79	+$0	50% 456-455 (911)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$1.91	$1.36	-$0.55	43% 467-625 (1092)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.4	+$0.05	52% 1127-1021 (2148)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$84.72

Value

$81.9

PnL

-$2.82

Record

72%

6092-2367 (8459)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$31.74

Value

$30.56

PnL

-$1.18

Record

46%

41-49 (90)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.68

Value

$14.43

PnL

+$3.51

Record

56%

14530-11397 (25927)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.36

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

89-104 (193)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.62

Value

$8.48

PnL

-$0.14

Record

52%

570-533 (1103)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.36

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$0.51

Record

58%

3434-2465 (5899)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

456-455 (911)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$0.55

Record

43%

467-625 (1092)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

1127-1021 (2148)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.