Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 87¢ · $397 held · ends Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$397.34

Combined PnL

$4.61

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 86.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$397.05

Total Shares464

Combined PnL+$4.52

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.29

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.09

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 86.5¢	$237.87	$186.45	-$4.07	41% 711-1031 (1742)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 85¢	$123.06	$125.96	+$2.9	65% 4332-2355 (6687)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$30.48	$31.32	+$0.84	14% 90-553 (643)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 85¢	$39.01	$16.9	+$1.17	35% 3807-6929 (10736)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 66¢	$10.56	$13.92	+$3.36	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$7.47	$7.93	+$0.46	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 85¢	$5.22	$5.19	-$0.03	57% 747-553 (1300)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 85¢	$5.12	$5.09	-$0.03	51% 847-812 (1659)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.38	$4.3	-$0.08	52% 810-753 (1563)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0.29	+$0.09	54% 2307-1980 (4287)

241532532432

Invested

$237.87

Value

$186.45

PnL

-$4.07

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$123.06

Value

$125.96

PnL

+$2.9

Record

65%

4332-2355 (6687)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$30.48

Value

$31.32

PnL

+$0.84

Record

14%

90-553 (643)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$39.01

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$1.17

Record

35%

3807-6929 (10736)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.56

Value

$13.92

PnL

+$3.36

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.47

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0.46

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

847-812 (1659)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.