Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 53¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 15

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$208.46

Combined PnL

$10.75

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$119.16

Total Shares220

Combined PnL+$10.47

No6 traders

Total Value$89.29

Total Shares189

Combined PnL+$0.28

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 44.8¢	$175.5	$52.59	+$8.46	40% 660-990 (1650)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 46.8¢	$49.58	$49.78	+$0.2	40% 42-63 (105)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$53.54	$46.35	+$2.26	32% 168-365 (533)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.8¢	$43.33	$20.22	-$0.25	14% 82-515 (597)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 44¢	$13.2	$13.5	+$0.3	26% 550-1579 (2129)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	$12.08	$10.64	-$1.44	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 47.7¢	$7.8	$8.58	+$0.79	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$3.97	$4.4	+$0.43	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.39	$2.39	-$0	63% 741-442 (1183)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$175.5

Value

$52.59

PnL

+$8.46

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$49.58

Value

$49.78

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

42-63 (105)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.54

Value

$46.35

PnL

+$2.26

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.33

Value

$20.22

PnL

-$0.25

Record

14%

82-515 (597)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$10.64

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0.79

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.43

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.