Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $445 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$444.99

Combined PnL

$1.18

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$444.85

Total Shares445

Combined PnL+$12.14

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares122

Combined PnL-$10.95

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.2¢	$364.49	$279.86	+$10.27	40% 625-948 (1573)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$97.4	$97.51	+$0.11	99% 1213-13 (1226)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$39.04	$39.96	+$0.92	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$21.8	$22.52	+$0.72	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.88	$5	+$0.12	29% 62-155 (217)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.01	$0.08	-$6.93	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.02	-$1.89	50% 701-690 (1391)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$0.02	-$1.79	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.35	$0	-$0.34	29% 3160-7828 (10988)

241532532432

Invested

$364.49

Value

$279.86

PnL

+$10.27

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$97.4

Value

$97.51

PnL

+$0.11

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.04

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.8

Value

$22.52

PnL

+$0.72

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.01

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.93

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.89

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.79

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

PnL

-$0.34

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.