Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $780 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$779.61

Combined PnL

$56.14

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 99.9¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$779.48

Total Shares780

Combined PnL+$63.04

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$6.89

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 92.3¢	$390.9	$378.62	+$27.76	40% 625-948 (1573)
HE hello.67	Noavg 90¢	$265.46	$274.84	+$27.46	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$41.95	$44.49	+$2.54	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$36.72	$39.96	+$3.24	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$17.94	$19.98	+$2.04	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.1	$8.1	+$0	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 1213-13 (1226)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.01	$0.12	-$6.89	31% 146-327 (473)

241532532432

Invested

$390.9

Value

$378.62

PnL

+$27.76

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

hello.67

Invested

$265.46

Value

$274.84

PnL

+$27.46

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$41.95

Value

$44.49

PnL

+$2.54

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$36.72

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$3.24

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$17.94

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$2.04

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.01

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$6.89

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.