Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $459 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$458.64

Combined PnL

-$9.43

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 99.2¢

+15% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$444.94

Total Shares447

Combined PnL+$51.08

Yes1 trader

Total Value$13.69

Total Shares403

Combined PnL-$60.51

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95¢	$385.02	$172.57	+$6.34	40% 625-948 (1573)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$71.26	$89.59	+$18.33	41% 37-54 (91)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$74.16	$89.55	+$15.39	72% 829-328 (1157)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72¢	$28.8	$39.8	+$11	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
Haradwaith	Noavg 80.1¢	$228.1	$33.42	-$0.01	31% 146-327 (473)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.4¢	$74.19	$13.69	-$60.51	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$10.99	$10.99	+$0	51% 787-755 (1542)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$4.96	$4.98	+$0.02	49% 736-769 (1505)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99¢	$2.5	$2.51	+$0.01	99% 1213-13 (1226)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.52	$1.52	+$0	48% 762-815 (1577)

241532532432

Invested

$385.02

Value

$172.57

PnL

+$6.34

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$71.26

Value

$89.59

PnL

+$18.33

Record

41%

37-54 (91)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$74.16

Value

$89.55

PnL

+$15.39

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$11

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

Haradwaith

Invested

$228.1

Value

$33.42

PnL

-$0.01

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.19

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$60.51

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.99

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.