Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 99¢ · $415 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$414.76

Combined PnL

$58.84

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 98.8¢

+37% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$397.21

Total Shares403

Combined PnL+$81.55

Yes1 trader

Total Value$17.35

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$22.71

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry	Noavg 66.2¢	$124.01	$184.83	+$60.83	41% 37-54 (91)
24 241532532432	Noavg 86¢	$365.41	$84.85	-$14.3	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 62¢	$34.1	$54.23	+$20.13	55% 1089-876 (1965)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 64¢	$25.6	$39.44	+$13.84	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$40.06	$17.35	-$22.71	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$15.72	$16.01	+$0.3	58% 703-504 (1207)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$8.65	$9.37	+$0.72	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$4.9	$4.93	+$0.04	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$3.54	$3.54	-$0	49% 736-769 (1505)

Bilberry

Invested

$124.01

Value

$184.83

PnL

+$60.83

Record

41%

37-54 (91)

241532532432

Invested

$365.41

Value

$84.85

PnL

-$14.3

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$34.1

Value

$54.23

PnL

+$20.13

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$25.6

Value

$39.44

PnL

+$13.84

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.06

Value

$17.35

PnL

-$22.71

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$15.72

Value

$16.01

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.65

Value

$9.37

PnL

+$0.72

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.