Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 84¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 14

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$122.49

Combined PnL

$36.34

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$98.68

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$11.28

Yes3 traders

Total Value$23.81

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$25.06

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81¢	$32.4	$35.6	+$3.2	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$32.98	$19.42	+$2.03	72% 829-328 (1157)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75¢	$14.49	$17.19	+$2.7	65% 4292-2315 (6607)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.82	$14.76	+$17.39	31% 146-327 (473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78¢	$14.2	$10.54	+$1.75	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 90¢	$5.45	$5.38	-$0.06	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$5.37	+$3.56	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.45	+$1.05	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.65	$4.25	+$0.6	51% 746-711 (1457)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$237.14	$3.67	+$4.1	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 89¢	$1.83	$1.83	+$0	58% 703-504 (1207)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$32.4

Value

$35.6

PnL

+$3.2

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$32.98

Value

$19.42

PnL

+$2.03

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$14.49

Value

$17.19

PnL

+$2.7

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.82

Value

$14.76

PnL

+$17.39

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$1.75

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$3.56

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

123987456<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$1.05

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.6

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$237.14

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$4.1

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.83

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.