Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 61¢ · $652 held · ends Nov 14

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$652.29

Combined PnL

-$14.6

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 61¢

-32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$275.15

Total Shares744

Combined PnL+$191.22

No6 traders

Total Value$377.13

Total Shares578

Combined PnL-$205.82

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 11.3¢	$81.39	$266.06	+$184.67	40% 36-54 (90)
24 241532532432	Noavg 90.8¢	$474.46	$251.4	-$136.45	40% 620-939 (1559)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$55	$37.2	-$17.8	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$34.84	$30.45	-$4.39	72% 823-323 (1146)
Haradwaith	Noavg 91¢	$191.36	$24.77	-$31.83	31% 146-327 (473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$64.55	$23.27	-$10.73	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$14.65	$10.03	-$4.62	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.86	$4.04	+$2.19	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.9	$3.33	+$2.43	55% 1088-874 (1962)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.26	$1.72	+$1.94	36% 3727-6719 (10446)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$81.39

Value

$266.06

PnL

+$184.67

Record

40%

36-54 (90)

241532532432

Invested

$474.46

Value

$251.4

PnL

-$136.45

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$55

Value

$37.2

PnL

-$17.8

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$34.84

Value

$30.45

PnL

-$4.39

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

Haradwaith

Invested

$191.36

Value

$24.77

PnL

-$31.83

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$64.55

Value

$23.27

PnL

-$10.73

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

suntori<$100

Invested

$14.65

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$4.62

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$2.19

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$2.43

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.26

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$1.94

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.