Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on November 14?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 63¢ · $244 held · ends Nov 14

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$244.08

Combined PnL

-$29.02

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 62.7¢

-27% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$66.98

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$37.03

No9 traders

Total Value$177.05

Total Shares269

Combined PnL-$66.05

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$27.99	$62.25	+$34.26	41% 37-54 (91)
24 241532532432	Noavg 78.9¢	$158.43	$44.27	-$11.61	40% 625-948 (1573)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$61.95	$40.01	-$21.94	99% 1213-13 (1226)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$39.04	$25.6	-$13.44	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$44.91	$21.06	-$6.36	72% 829-328 (1157)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$75.29	$17.59	-$12.2	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$25.76	$16.8	+$1.54	65% 4292-2315 (6607)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$8.42	$7.07	-$1.35	63% 716-429 (1145)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$4.38	+$2.57	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$3.91	$3.32	-$0.59	49% 736-769 (1505)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$1.43	$1.32	-$0.11	51% 787-755 (1542)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.15	$0.36	+$0.21	34% 263-521 (784)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.99

Value

$62.25

PnL

+$34.26

Record

41%

37-54 (91)

241532532432

Invested

$158.43

Value

$44.27

PnL

-$11.61

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$61.95

Value

$40.01

PnL

-$21.94

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.04

Value

$25.6

PnL

-$13.44

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$44.91

Value

$21.06

PnL

-$6.36

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$75.29

Value

$17.59

PnL

-$12.2

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$25.76

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$1.54

Record

65%

4292-2315 (6607)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$8.42

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$1.35

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$2.57

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$0.59

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.11

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.21

Record

34%

263-521 (784)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.9%

62.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.