Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$299.97

Combined PnL

-$21.25

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$299.85

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares237

Combined PnL-$21.4

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$299.7	$299.85	+$0.15	99% 1213-13 (1226)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.01	$0.04	-$6.97	31% 146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.36	$0.03	-$6.33	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.61	$0.01	-$2.59	37% 1518-2567 (4085)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.01	-$1.9	50% 701-690 (1391)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$0.01	-$1.8	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.94	$0.01	-$0.93	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.54	$0	-$0.53	18% 853-3905 (4758)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.35	$0	-$0.34	29% 3160-7828 (10988)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$299.7

Value

$299.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.01

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.97

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.36

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.33

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.59

Record

37%

1518-2567 (4085)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.8

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.93

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

PnL

-$0.53

Record

18%

853-3905 (4758)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

PnL

-$0.34

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.