Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C or below on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$100.07

Combined PnL

-$21.49

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares238

Combined PnL-$21.54

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 1213-13 (1226)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.01	$0.04	-$6.97	31% 146-327 (473)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.36	$0.03	-$6.33	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.61	$0.01	-$2.59	37% 1518-2567 (4085)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.01	-$1.9	50% 701-690 (1391)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$0.01	-$1.8	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.94	$0.01	-$0.93	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.54	$0	-$0.53	18% 853-3905 (4758)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.35	$0	-$0.34	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.15	$0	-$0.15	34% 263-521 (784)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.01

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.97

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.36

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.33

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.59

Record

37%

1518-2567 (4085)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.9

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.8

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.93

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

PnL

-$0.53

Record

18%

853-3905 (4758)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

PnL

-$0.34

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

34%

263-521 (784)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.