Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 88¢ · $216 held · ends Nov 13

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$216.3

Combined PnL

$32.76

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 88¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$108.45

Total Shares803

Combined PnL+$28.39

No5 traders

Total Value$107.85

Total Shares119

Combined PnL+$4.37

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$49.53	$67.1	+$17.56	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85¢	$54.72	$58.59	+$3.86	75% 712-239 (951)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.21	$27.04	+$8.83	59% 1169-826 (1995)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$26.85	$18.47	+$1.1	54% 994-856 (1850)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.38	$17.98	-$0.4	58% 527-386 (913)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$12.32	$14.31	+$1.99	37% 457-784 (1241)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 91¢	$8.28	$8.1	-$0.18	48% 554-604 (1158)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.71	$4.71	+$0	46% 575-687 (1262)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.53

Value

$67.1

PnL

+$17.56

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$54.72

Value

$58.59

PnL

+$3.86

Record

75%

712-239 (951)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.21

Value

$27.04

PnL

+$8.83

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.85

Value

$18.47

PnL

+$1.1

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$18.38

Value

$17.98

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

527-386 (913)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.32

Value

$14.31

PnL

+$1.99

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.28

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

554-604 (1158)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

575-687 (1262)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.