Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 13?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 54¢ · $168 held · ends Nov 13

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$168.4

Combined PnL

$36.61

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 54¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$142.72

Total Shares246

Combined PnL+$2.46

Yes3 traders

Total Value$25.45

Total Shares59

Combined PnL+$34.14

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 50¢	$144.78	$75.58	+$24.31	37% 457-784 (1241)
HE hello.67	Noavg 82.2¢	$703.99	$41.9	-$28.63	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$247.84	$17.28	+$30.34	59% 1169-826 (1995)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$13.76	$14.64	+$6.73	54% 994-856 (1850)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.5¢	$3.55	$4.3	+$0.75	75% 712-239 (951)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$3.87	+$3.05	61% 517-328 (845)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.85	$3.06	+$0.21	46% 562-657 (1219)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.38	$2.56	+$0.18	46% 575-687 (1262)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 51¢	$2.57	$2.55	-$0.03	43% 890-1199 (2089)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.75	$2.43	-$0.31	61% 524-330 (854)

241532532432

Invested

$144.78

Value

$75.58

PnL

+$24.31

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

hello.67

Invested

$703.99

Value

$41.9

PnL

-$28.63

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$247.84

Value

$17.28

PnL

+$30.34

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.76

Value

$14.64

PnL

+$6.73

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.75

Record

75%

712-239 (951)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$3.05

Record

61%

517-328 (845)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.21

Record

46%

562-657 (1219)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.18

Record

46%

575-687 (1262)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

43%

890-1199 (2089)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.31

Record

61%

524-330 (854)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.