Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$163.79
-$1.53
98.8¢ → 97.9¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $65.27 | $64.61 | -$0.66 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $43.67 | $43.27 | -$0.39 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.67 | $29.37 | -$0.3 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $10.46 | $10.36 | -$0.11 | 27% 937-2515 (3452) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $9.8 | $9.79 | -$0.01 | 55% 625-514 (1139) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $6.45 | $6.38 | -$0.07 | 79% 432-115 (547) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$65.27
Value
$64.61
PnL
-$0.66
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$43.67
Value
$43.27
PnL
-$0.39
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
Invested
$29.67
Value
$29.37
PnL
-$0.3
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$10.46
Value
$10.36
PnL
-$0.11
Record
27%
937-2515 (3452)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.79
PnL
-$0.01
Record
55%
625-514 (1139)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$6.38
PnL
-$0.07
Record
79%
432-115 (547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.