Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $153 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$153.49
$0.9
89.5¢ → 90.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $59.1 | $59.4 | +$0.3 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $39.75 | $39.78 | +$0.03 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $32.33 | $33.08 | +$0.76 | 55% 581-483 (1064) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $9.73 | $9.52 | -$0.21 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $5.8 | $5.87 | +$0.07 | 79% 394-105 (499) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $5.87 | $5.84 | -$0.03 | 80% 570-145 (715) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$59.1
Value
$59.4
PnL
+$0.3
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
Invested
$39.75
Value
$39.78
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$32.33
Value
$33.08
PnL
+$0.76
Record
55%
581-483 (1064)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$9.52
PnL
-$0.21
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$0.07
Record
79%
394-105 (499)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$5.84
PnL
-$0.03
Record
80%
570-145 (715)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.