Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 12?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 52¢ · $262 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$261.69
$0.1
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67ARB<$100 | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $134.38 | $98.27 | -$1.81 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $61.28 | $59.64 | -$1.64 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.4¢ | $37.81 | $38.63 | -$0.17 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 49.3¢ | $65.45 | $68.32 | +$2.87 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.9¢ | $42.04 | $41.71 | -$0.33 | 31% 285-621 (906) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $22.55 | $21.74 | -$0.82 | 80% 558-142 (700) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $14.81 | $13.81 | -$1 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50.4¢ | $12.96 | $12.34 | -$0.62 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $5.5 | $5.5 | +$0 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
Invested
$134.38
Value
$98.27
PnL
-$1.81
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.45
Value
$68.32
PnL
+$2.87
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$42.04
Value
$41.71
PnL
-$0.33
Record
31%
285-621 (906)
Invested
$22.55
Value
$21.74
PnL
-$0.82
Record
80%
558-142 (700)
Invested
$14.81
Value
$13.81
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$12.34
PnL
-$0.62
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.