Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 68¢ · $429 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$429.43
$5.49
62.1¢ → 67.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 62.8¢ | $302.64 | $302.64 | +$0 | 68% 2062-951 (3013) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $58.56 | $60.26 | +$1.7 | 31% 276-616 (892) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $24.8 | $26 | +$1.2 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $17.7 | $18.83 | +$1.13 | 80% 550-134 (684) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $14.04 | $15.19 | +$1.16 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $6.2 | $6.5 | +$0.3 | 12% 20-153 (173) |
Invested
$302.64
Value
$302.64
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2062-951 (3013)
Invested
$58.56
Value
$60.26
PnL
+$1.7
Record
31%
276-616 (892)
Invested
$24.8
Value
$26
PnL
+$1.2
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$17.7
Value
$18.83
PnL
+$1.13
Record
80%
550-134 (684)
Invested
$14.04
Value
$15.19
PnL
+$1.16
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
12%
20-153 (173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.