Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on November 12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 97¢ · $233 held · ends Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$232.63

Combined PnL

-$2.72

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 97.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$230.24

Total Shares234

Combined PnL+$0.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.39

Total Shares94

Combined PnL-$3.64

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96¢	$74.93	$69.91	-$0.14	32% 290-625 (915)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$64.62	$64.75	+$0.12	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$42.5	$42.85	+$0.35	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.36	$29.43	+$0.07	17% 66-330 (396)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.16	$10.16	+$0	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$19.33	$6.78	+$0.56	54% 563-474 (1037)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$6.41	$6.36	-$0.05	79% 380-101 (481)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$6.03	$2.39	-$3.64	68% 2064-954 (3018)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$69.91

PnL

-$0.14

Record

32%

290-625 (915)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$64.62

Value

$64.75

PnL

+$0.12

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$42.85

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.36

Value

$29.43

PnL

+$0.07

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.33

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

563-474 (1037)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$6.36

PnL

-$0.05

Record

79%

380-101 (481)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$3.64

Record

68%

2064-954 (3018)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.