Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $24 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$23.52
-$9.37
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $13.18 | $9.43 | -$3.76 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.45 | $4.62 | -$1.84 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5 | $3.58 | -$1.42 | 49% 492-514 (1006) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.69 | $2.64 | -$1.05 | 29% 888-2138 (3026) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $1.3 | -$0.52 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.68 | $1.2 | -$0.48 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.07 | $0.76 | -$0.3 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
Invested
$13.18
Value
$9.43
PnL
-$3.76
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.45
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$1.84
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$5
Value
$3.58
PnL
-$1.42
Record
49%
492-514 (1006)
Invested
$3.69
Value
$2.64
PnL
-$1.05
Record
29%
888-2138 (3026)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$0.52
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$0.48
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$0.3
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.