Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on November 12?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$104.19
-$29.53
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $100.83 | $99.67 | -$1.16 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $13.18 | $1.81 | -$11.37 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.45 | $0.89 | -$5.57 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5 | $0.69 | -$4.31 | 49% 492-514 (1006) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.69 | $0.51 | -$3.18 | 29% 888-2138 (3026) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.25 | -$1.57 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.68 | $0.23 | -$1.45 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.07 | $0.15 | -$0.92 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
Invested
$100.83
Value
$99.67
PnL
-$1.16
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$13.18
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$11.37
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.45
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$5.57
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$5
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$4.31
Record
49%
492-514 (1006)
Invested
$3.69
Value
$0.51
PnL
-$3.18
Record
29%
888-2138 (3026)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$1.57
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$1.45
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.92
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.