Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 84¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$142.44
$4.98
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $42.85 | $33.02 | -$9.84 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $24.56 | $27.2 | +$2.64 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $17.22 | $21.22 | +$3.99 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $17 | +$3.2 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $13.55 | $16.69 | +$3.14 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 77.1¢ | $12.77 | $14.15 | +$1.38 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $12.71 | $13.17 | +$0.45 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$42.85
Value
$33.02
PnL
-$9.84
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$24.56
Value
$27.2
PnL
+$2.64
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.22
Value
$21.22
PnL
+$3.99
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$17
PnL
+$3.2
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$13.55
Value
$16.69
PnL
+$3.14
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$12.77
Value
$14.15
PnL
+$1.38
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$12.71
Value
$13.17
PnL
+$0.45
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.