Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 36¢ · $83 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$82.79
-$23.01
45.6¢ → 36¢
-21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 47.1¢ | $58.94 | $43.82 | -$15.12 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $14.24 | $11.2 | -$3.04 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $11.24 | $8.74 | -$2.5 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $8.84 | $6.88 | -$1.96 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.8¢ | $6.58 | $5.96 | -$0.62 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $4.99 | $5.08 | +$0.09 | 81% 525-121 (646) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $0.98 | $1.12 | +$0.14 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
Invested
$58.94
Value
$43.82
PnL
-$15.12
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$14.24
Value
$11.2
PnL
-$3.04
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$11.24
Value
$8.74
PnL
-$2.5
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$8.84
Value
$6.88
PnL
-$1.96
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$6.58
Value
$5.96
PnL
-$0.62
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0.09
Record
81%
525-121 (646)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$1.12
PnL
+$0.14
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.