Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on November 10?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$94.4

Combined PnL

$0.56

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$94.4

Total Shares95

Combined PnL+$0.56

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$29.73	$29.82	+$0.09	4% 15-322 (337)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$25.33	$25.49	+$0.15	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$19.75	$19.87	+$0.12	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.03	$5.05	+$0.02	31% 163-361 (524)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.89	$4.97	+$0.08	51% 197-186 (383)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.88	$4.97	+$0.09	21% 132-485 (617)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	100% 93-0 (93)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$1.74	$1.74	+$0	36% 462-806 (1268)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.73

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$0.09

Record

15-322 (337)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$25.33

Value

$25.49

PnL

+$0.15

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.75

Value

$19.87

PnL

+$0.12

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.09

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

93-0 (93)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.