Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C on November 10?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 84¢ · $269 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$269.47
$3.12
85.9¢ → 83.5¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 88.8¢ | $140.24 | $133.06 | +$1.62 | 67% 3785-1901 (5686) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $53.73 | $56.15 | +$2.42 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $24.9 | $27 | +$2.1 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $59.79 | $19.62 | -$1.1 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $12.94 | $13.87 | +$0.92 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $10.86 | $13.31 | +$2.45 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $11.76 | $6.47 | -$5.29 | 68% 1961-927 (2888) |
Invested
$140.24
Value
$133.06
PnL
+$1.62
Record
67%
3785-1901 (5686)
Invested
$53.73
Value
$56.15
PnL
+$2.42
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$24.9
Value
$27
PnL
+$2.1
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$59.79
Value
$19.62
PnL
-$1.1
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.94
Value
$13.87
PnL
+$0.92
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$10.86
Value
$13.31
PnL
+$2.45
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$11.76
Value
$6.47
PnL
-$5.29
Record
68%
1961-927 (2888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.