Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C on November 10?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $151 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$150.66
-$0.12
98.2¢ → 99.4¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 36%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $29.43 | $29.43 | +$0 | 32% 811-1697 (2508) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $25.15 | $25.15 | +$0 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $25.15 | $25.15 | +$0 | 36% 462-806 (1268) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $19.68 | $19.62 | -$0.06 | 90% 28-3 (31) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.87 | $19.62 | -$0.25 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $17.05 | $16.97 | -$0.08 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $14.44 | $14.72 | +$0.28 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
Invested
$29.43
Value
$29.43
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
811-1697 (2508)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$25.15
Value
$25.15
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$25.15
Value
$25.15
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
462-806 (1268)
Invested
$19.68
Value
$19.62
PnL
-$0.06
Record
90%
28-3 (31)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.87
Value
$19.62
PnL
-$0.25
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$17.05
Value
$16.97
PnL
-$0.08
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$14.72
PnL
+$0.28
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.