Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 31?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 87¢ · $311 held · ends Oct 31

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$311.14

Combined PnL

-$11.36

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 87¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$215.48

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$2.58

Yes4 traders

Total Value$95.66

Total Shares559

Combined PnL-$8.78

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 87¢	$168.2	$166.22	-$1.98	56% 372-296 (668)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$90.69	$78.75	-$11.55	21% 300-1148 (1448)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 83¢	$49.86	$49.26	-$0.6	73% 8252-3127 (11379)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$7.32	$10.25	+$2.93	18% 527-2364 (2891)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$5.6	$5.69	-$0.16	59% 1743-1208 (2951)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.96	$0.96	+$0	53% 6484-5687 (12171)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$168.2

Value

$166.22

PnL

-$1.98

Record

56%

372-296 (668)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.69

Value

$78.75

PnL

-$11.55

Record

21%

300-1148 (1448)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$49.86

Value

$49.26

PnL

-$0.6

Record

73%

8252-3127 (11379)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$2.93

Record

18%

527-2364 (2891)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$0.16

Record

59%

1743-1208 (2951)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6484-5687 (12171)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.