Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 31?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 42¢ · $205 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$204.91
-$2.66
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $107.61 | $102.83 | -$2.24 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $56.88 | $59.64 | +$2.6 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.5¢ | $47.77 | $43.19 | -$4.84 | |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 41.1¢ | $67.5 | $67.94 | +$1.99 | 59% 1738-1204 (2942) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41.1¢ | $41.52 | $42.42 | +$0.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $23.92 | $25.52 | +$1.6 | |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $26.4 | $25.2 | -$1.2 | 73% 8252-3127 (11379) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $13.15 | $8.93 | -$1.46 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$107.61
Value
$102.83
PnL
-$2.24
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.5
Value
$67.94
PnL
+$1.99
Record
59%
1738-1204 (2942)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.4
Value
$25.2
PnL
-$1.2
Record
73%
8252-3127 (11379)
Invested
$13.15
Value
$8.93
PnL
-$1.46
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.