Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 22¢ · $425 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$424.78
-$10.22
23.3¢ → 21.5¢
-8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $170.97 | $160.82 | -$13.89 | 47% 641-724 (1365) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $186.86 | $116.82 | -$11.32 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77¢ | $90.86 | $88.5 | -$7.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $32.08 | $28.32 | -$3.77 | |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $71.74 | $70.02 | -$3.18 | 62% 1439-885 (2324) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $43.2 | $45 | +$1.8 | 73% 8252-3127 (11379) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $39.14 | $32.11 | +$5.05 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
Invested
$170.97
Value
$160.82
PnL
-$13.89
Record
47%
641-724 (1365)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$186.86
Value
$116.82
PnL
-$11.32
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Both legs:
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$71.74
Value
$70.02
PnL
-$3.18
Record
62%
1439-885 (2324)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$45
PnL
+$1.8
Record
73%
8252-3127 (11379)
Invested
$39.14
Value
$32.11
PnL
+$5.05
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.